Dave Swished a couple more heartbreakers for his clients with another 0-3-1
record on Wed Night
Dave is promising a big 6* play for us on the thursday card
Dave Malinsky Reports this to his clients
Some days it is awfully difficult to find the words, and on top of some brutal rolls of the dice of late Wednesday produces such a feeling. We will put last night's San Antonio ending up at the Hall of Fame level, after the Kings made three 3-point shots in the final seven seconds (that is correct, three triples in the final seven seconds) to lead to a bitter back-door defeat, only to see that late scramble in Los Angeles add another a few moments later, when Flip Murray's triple at the buzzer turned another result around (if Jordan Farmar dribbles out instead of dunking that one falls at 191). And of course Evansville fouling down by 11 in a dribble-out situation at Creighton did not help. It has simply been a once in a lifetime cycle
The last line is not true at all. Dave has had many implosions of this magnitude over the past 5 years.... its the short dick short memory syndrome.
Dave Malinsky is
- 24.6 units the first 3 Days of February
-102.4 units in the NBA Year to date
-76.2 units in CBB year to date
More swishes to come Thursday morning
but lets all enjoy Daves Superbowl selection
4* #101 NEW ORLEANS over INDIANAPOLIS
It is absolutely no secret what the numbers ?3? and ?4? are worth in
the NFL. When they are established as win numbers in a competitive
game it means that we have a lot going for us, and it is the process
that made those numbers available of the New Orleans side of this
equation that has created extreme value for this game.
There was a lot of discussion on the day of the Conference
Championship games as to where the Super Bowl would open, and the
back-room consensus was a -2.5 with the Colts over either the Saints
or Vikings, or a -3 that would be shaded via the money line towards
the underdogs. Our own contribution to the processes was that it was
the proper range, based on nearly five months of watching the teams
play. And once Indianapolis had the Jets firmly in hand, we saw one
of the strongest stores open the game at -2.5 for a while, before
taking it down when the Vikings/Saints kicked off. It was a good
line. Indianapolis has had a special season from Peyton Manning (back
in an October <i>?Verities & Balderdash?</i> column we were noting
that he was playing as well as any QB we had ever charted), and
deserved the role of the slight favorite, but the Colts are not an
overpowering side.
So fast forward and the markets are sitting at -5, with our hopes of
getting +6?s negated by Dwight Freeney likely to be only a minimal
factor on Sunday. The +3 and +4 have turned into New Orleans ?win?
tickets, not necessarily because of what had happened over the course
of the season, but rather the fact that the Saints appeared to be as
much lucky as good in escaping vs. Minnesota. That is an awfully big
adjustment off of a single result, but as is so often the case, the
markets can be overly influenced by what they saw last. So what is
the proper context? We do not know who the better team is, and one
side has been established as a substantial favorite despite the fact
that their ground game is much weaker, and that they are going to
have a difficult time getting the opposing offense off the field.
Manning has been absolutely brilliant this season, overcoming the
absence of a reliable ground game (that is an understatement, with
the Colts gaining 129 fewer yards overland than any team in the
league, with only the Chargers getting less per attempt), and a lack
of depth and experience in the receiving corps. It was his savvy that
led to a remarkable run of 7-0 in games decided by four points or
less, and they compiled six wins in single digits against opponents
that did not make the playoffs. This is a team that does not have
much margin for error, especially with Freeney?s lessened status
taking away a key cog defensively, and their reputation is in
conflict with their reality in terms of the public perceptions in the
upward surge of this line.
So let?s go to the matchups. The overall defensive numbers for the
Saints are not special because of a weakness against the run, but
that soft spot will not be exposed here. What this group does do is
generate a pass rush and make plays, with 35 sacks and a sparkling
ratio of 26 interceptions vs. only 15 TD passes allowed. And most
important for our purposes, those numbers were not just piled up with
big leads against weak opponents. Down the stretch and in the
playoffs they faced Tom Brady, Kurt Warner and Brett Favre, and in
those three games generated 10 turnovers, and a fantastic ratio of
five interceptions vs. only two TD passes allowed. You do not expect
Manning to be forced into mistakes, but the same can be said about
those other three savvy veterans that struggled so much vs. this
defense.
When the Saints have the ball it is a different story. Consider this
pointspread in light of a team that ran for over 2,000 (#4 in the
NFL) yards at 4.5 per carry vs. a defense that allowed over 2,000
(#24) at 4.3. That matchup provides an awful lot of leverage for Drew
Brees and the passing game, creating extra time in the pocket via
play action, and then it is Brees and his 70.6 percent accuracy vs. a
defense that allowed 63.8. And with Freeney unlikely to be a
significant factor (as a speed rusher that ankle injury takes away
the heart of his game), we expect to see the Indy defense on their
heels throughout. While their overall numbers in the regular season
were respectable they did not face a lot of major challenges, and
were nothing special when they did have to step up (like the 34
points and 477 yards they allowed to Brady and the Patriots). And
while the Saints were having to deal with Warner and Favre in the
playoffs, Indy faced Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez, with the gap in
experience between those duos about as wide as can be possible.
The bottom line is that the Colts do not bring advantages anywhere
near what this pointspread indicates, and even past experience is not
a huge factor, with only 19 players on this roster holdovers from
their Super Bowl win on this field four years ago. This is absolutely
anyone?s game to win outright, and it would be no surprise at all to
see Brees and all of those New Orleans weapons in the skill positions
dictate the flow throughout against a favorite that brings holes that
can be exploited.
